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A vaulted, brick-arched corridor in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, lit through stained-glass windows, with most shops shuttered and a few people walking
Economy | Sanctions

What sanctions cost Iranians

Twice Iran's oil has been cut off, and each time households paid. Now it has stopped altogether

Photo: Antoine Taveneaux, CC BY-SA 4.0

September 2026 | 6 min read

What we found

  1. Follow the oil

    Two earlier squeezes each left Iran 13-14% poorer than it would have been.

  2. A war as well

    The rial has lost 48% of its value this year, and the oil shock is still to come.

  3. Three ways from here

    Household consumption in 2027 under a blockade, a leaky blockade and a deal.

More from Signum Average

In three charts

2000 2025 2040 2060 2075 71% plus Hispanics classed as white 41% plus part-white 36% White alone, not Hispanic Half 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 One forecast, three answers United States: share of the population counted as white under three definitions, % Dotted lines are the median projection; bands hold 80% of 4,000 simulated futures Sources: US Census Bureau population estimates; Signum Average projection The Bureau changed its race base in 2020 (small step in the line). Hispanics are classed by race as in its 2025 estimates
United States | Demography

It depends who is counted

Count only non-Hispanic people who are white alone, and the white share of Americans falls from 56% today to a projected 36% in 2075. Count everyone classed as white or part-white, and it is 71%.

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Peak, 2007: 250m hl 2025: 208m hl 168m hl in 2035 if the decline continues Production Consumption 150 200 250 300 350 400 Drinking less World wine production and consumption, million hectolitres 2023 not shown: the two sources measure it differently. 2024 derived from the OIV's change for 2025 Sources: Anderson and Pinilla, University of Adelaide (1961-2022); OIV (2024-25); Signum Average
World | Wine

A shrinking glass

The world drank 208m hectolitres of wine in 2025, 17% less than at its peak in 2007. If the recent decline continues, the figure will be 168m by 2035.

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 UN sanctions EU oil embargo, SWIFT cut JCPOA relief US maximum pressure Single digits 0 10 20 30 40 50 The price of pressure Consumer-price inflation, % Iran Peer oil producers, median Peers: the 26 oil producers in the synthetic Iran with inflation data. Source: World Bank
Iran | Inflation

The price of pressure

Iran's inflation ran just 5 points above peer oil producers' during the nuclear deal. Since 2019 the gap has been 36 points. For households paid in rials, that is the sanction they feel most.

Read the analysis Get the data

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