About Signum Average

Signum Average publishes independent, data-driven journalism on economics and finance, politics, society and culture. Each study starts from a question in the news that evidence can answer, gathers the data, tests more than one way of answering it, and shows its working.

The name comes from the signum function, which says only whether a number is below zero, at zero or above it. Much of what gets argued about is a question of direction: is something rising or falling, helping or hurting? We try to settle the direction first, then say how large the effect is and how sure anyone can be.

Who writes it

Articles are published under the publication's name, not under personal bylines. The work is meant to be judged on its data and methods, which anyone can check, not on who wrote it. Every article says where its data comes from, gives a citation, and carries a record of any correction.

Methods and standards

Show the working. Every study publishes its data and a description of its methods, including the models that did not work. The full report, the detailed methods and the code are sent to anyone who asks.

Test before forecasting. A model is used for a forecast only if it has beaten a naive guess on data it had not seen. Where it has not, we say so and fall back on arithmetic or on other people's forecasts.

Say what we can't say. Every study ends with the limits of its evidence, not just its findings.

Correct in public. Errors are fixed openly and logged on the corrections page, with the date and the change.

Funding and independence

Signum Average is free to read and carries no advertising. It takes no money from governments, political parties or campaign organisations. At present it has no outside funding at all. When reader donations open, this page will list what we receive.

Reusing our work

Our text, charts and data may be reused with credit under the CC BY 4.0 licence, unless a caption or data file says otherwise. The data is on GitHub.

Contact

Questions, corrections, data and requests for reports go through the contact page.