Trackers
Live pages that follow a question as it develops, each with its method, its track record against past events, and a market price beside it where one exists.
Tracker | US elections
US midterms 2026
Senate
60%Democrats
40%Republicans
House
83%Democrats
17%Republicans
Chance of control, from our own model. Closest Senate races:
- IowaR 52%
- TexasD 54%
- Ohio (special)D 59%
- AlaskaR 62%
Image: NASA, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, public domain
Tracker | Iran, the US and Israel.jpg){kind=link}
Iran war tracker
The war between Iran, the US and Israel: how intense it is and where it is heading, from precisely defined signals checked against sources.
- US strikes on Iranian soilup 3 points63%
- Israel–Iran warup 3 points25%
- A ceasefire that holdsdown 3 points20%
- Iran attacks US forcesup 3 points68%
Chance within 90 days, as defined